Senator VAN (Victoria) (13:15): I rise to speak on a matter that is of urgent geopolitical concern to Australia and should be to all Australians. The current build-up of over 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border is the biggest concentration of firepower in eastern Europe since the Cold War. This inherently threatens to destabilise not only the regional security of that part of the world but also the global geostrategic balance. This is of utmost concern to Australia.
Australian commentary in recent weeks about the increased risk of war between Russia and Ukraine misses the simple fact that the two countries are already at war. Understanding just how big Russia’s appetite is to endure any cost of further invasion is a key priority for right now, yet there are substantial divergences amongst NATO members as to what that cost should be. This matters enormously.
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Moscow has consistently undermined Ukrainian sovereignty. Russian actions in the Donbass region, including backing separatist rebels, have created immense instability. Likewise, a multitude of cyberattacks can be linked to Russia, from a cyberstrike against Ukraine’s electrical grid in 2015 which disrupted power for millions of people through to a cyberattack earlier this year which brought down multiple government websites. These are just two such examples. The current build-up of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border is just another act of aggression unleashed by Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Europe can no longer pass the buck when it comes to assisting Ukraine. They must stand together. Russian actions and designs for Ukraine are clearly an attempt to intimidate Europe into acquiescing to Moscow’s desired regional security environment. A security environment where might is right and the weak suffer is not in Europe’s or Australia’s interests. The United States should not be doing all the heavy lifting when it comes to standing up to Russia. All allies and partners who have an interest in global peace and stability must be prepared to do what is necessary to ensure conflict is averted. However, this means that NATO states, particularly the European members, must materially step up to the threats facing Ukraine. The United Kingdom is leading the European pack in laying down red lines for Russia, and its leadership should be commended. Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands and the Baltic States have sent Ukraine weapons. France and Germany, however—arguably the two European nations who should be taking a lead on the Ukraine crisis—are unfortunately letting Europe down.
While France has been doing some of the diplomatic heavy lifting, Germany’s stance is increasingly looking much more like appeasement. While the ideal solution is a diplomatic one, the reality is that deterrence must be demonstrably credible. Germany’s insistence on not providing lethal weapons, sending instead 5,000 helmets and medical equipment, exposes an evident weakness in European unity on Ukraine. Of course, we know Berlin is constrained by its weakness and reliance on Russian gas, and I applaud recent Australian announcements that we are ready to fill that gap should that occur. I also acknowledge that we are hearing via the White House that Germany is prepared to look at wide-ranging sanctions. It would be better to be hearing that from Berlin. However, if Germany won’t stand up for its neighbours and the ideals of liberal democracy, sovereignty and regional security, Australia should think twice about rewarding it with future defence contracts.
If Europe lets Putin get away with further aggression against Ukraine, a precedent will be set for other authoritarian leaders around the globe. This precedent should worry Australians, especially those standing in this house today. A United States that is bogged down in Europe will have serious implications for our own backyard, the Indo-Pacific, in what is already a dangerous and highly contested security environment. It means the United States will have less bandwidth in capability to operate and deter malicious actors in the Indo-Pacific. This opportunity could very much allow China’s Xi Jinping to place further pressure on the region’s shared vision of being free, open and stable. However, this should come as no surprise. Over the past decade we have watched China become increasingly more assertive and increasingly more willing to use its weight against states who dare to disagree.
If Europe does not stand up to Russia and Ukraine, a clear message will be delivered to China on the question of strategic ambiguity over Taiwan, the message being that the West does not have the strength or the will to defend smaller liberal democracies and that if you push hard enough the West will capitulate. This is a message that we simply cannot endorse. President Xi has made it clear that in his lifetime Taiwan will be incorporated into mainland China. He will therefore be watching with a close eye as to how the West responds to Putin’s latest acts of aggression.
If European states do not step up in the Ukrainian crisis and the United States becomes drawn into protracted conflict in Ukraine, those nations with national interest in the Indo-Pacific must be ready to step up with an increased physical presence in the region —this includes our allies and partners such as Japan, the UK, Korea, India and others—to ensure our region and backyard remain stable, regardless of the situation in Europe. In fact, if France and Germany are not going to defend Ukraine, they should at least be prepared to defend their interests in this region, which they talk so much about.
Russia has watched China apply a dangerous strategy of incrementalism, with accumulated gains in the region over the last decade, particularly in the South China Sea. As an international community we must recognise that this strategy will not just disappear. The question isn’t if Russia will make a further move on Ukraine, but when. All countries who believe in peace must be prepared to back Ukraine in any way they can, but Europe ought to step up most. If not, European countries need to be prepared to answer to their children and grandchildren as to why not.
Here in Australia we have experienced firsthand the pressures of an overbearing, authoritarian government that has attempted to coerce us and force its will upon our people. This government has rightly stood up to these coercive acts in the name of protecting the ideals we value most. All countries who believe in peace must be prepared to back Ukraine in any way they can, particularly through economic sanctions. However, all NATO countries must show the greatest resolve and provide military support. If they don’t, they need to be prepared to answer to history as to why they appeased Putin.
As chair of the parliamentary friends of Ukraine group, I have a deep appreciation for the Ukrainian people and I admire the strength and resolve they have displayed as a nation in recent times. This is not the first time that liberal democracies have been challenged to stand up for their values and it will not be the last. But how we act today and how we respond to the threat we currently face can and will have repercussions for the future.
Russia must immediately de-escalate. However, if Putin proves unwilling to do so, the free world’s support for Ukraine’s sovereign integrity must be unwavering. Now is the time for all nations who profess a love for the democratic institutions we hold so dearly to our hearts to stand with Ukraine for what is not only a just cause but also a cause that can and will shape our geostrategic environment.
Ukraine’s Geopolitical impact on Australia — Senator David Van
